Policy Briefs
Short, rapid assessments of current developments for principals and staff — verification, significance, trajectory and indicators.
A private research house for institutions that need to understand the region accurately.
Ephemeris Advisory LLP is an independent geopolitical and security research consultancy headquartered in London. We specialise in the strategic landscape of the Middle East — above all the Gulf — in defence agreements and in transnational security cooperation, conducting neutral policy research for private clients rather than public audiences.
§ 01 — Mandate
Why “Ephemeris”.
An ephemeris is the table by which an observer fixes the position of bodies in the sky at a given time and place — coordinates that make navigation possible without mistaking the chart for the territory. It is the discipline our name refers to: locating events precisely in time and place, and deriving judgement only from what can be established.
The firm exists because the strategic politics of the Middle East are increasingly decided in quiet agreements — defence commitments, access arrangements, maritime cooperation, intelligence liaison — whose meaning is rarely captured in public reporting. Our work reconstructs that structure for the small number of institutions, governments and investors whose decisions depend on understanding it correctly.
We are not a media company and do not seek a public profile. Our standing with clients rests entirely on the accuracy, independence and discretion of the research itself.
§ 02 — The Firm at a Glance
Status and structure.
| Registered name | Ephemeris Advisory LLP |
|---|---|
| Legal form | Limited liability partnership, registered in England and Wales under the Limited Liability Partnerships Act 2000 |
| Headquarters | London, United Kingdom |
| Nature of work | Independent geopolitical and security research: policy briefs, strategic assessments and academic analysis |
| Regional focus | The Middle East, with primary emphasis on the Gulf and Arabian Peninsula |
| Subject focus | Strategic dynamics, defence agreements, and transnational security cooperation |
| Operating model | Closed, invitation-only expert network; work delivered privately, never through mass media |
| Posture | Unofficial, neutral and non-partisan; no government mandate, no advocacy |
| Working languages | Arabic, Persian, Turkish, Hebrew, Kurdish, French and English |
§ 03 — Regional Coverage
Five desks under one method.
Coverage is organised by desk, but review, sourcing standards and partner sign-off are held in London.
| Desk | Principal coverage and questions |
|---|---|
| Gulf & Arabian Peninsula | Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman and Yemen — GCC politics, alignment and hedging, defence procurement and posture, energy and security, succession and domestic stability. |
| Levant & Iraq | Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and the Palestinians — conflict trajectories, state fragility, armed-group dynamics, mediation and reconstruction politics. |
| Iran, Türkiye & South Caucasus | Iranian regional and nuclear policy, sanctions and deterrence; Turkish foreign and defence policy; the Caucasus as a connecting theatre. |
| Israel & the Palestinians | The Israeli–Palestinian arena, Israeli security doctrine, Abraham Accords dynamics and Eastern Mediterranean security. |
| Egypt, Red Sea & the Nile | Egyptian politics and security, Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb maritime risk, Sudan and approaches to the Horn of Africa. |
The Maghreb, the Sahel and the wider Horn are monitored as neighbouring theatres and are covered by bespoke arrangement where they bear on Gulf and Red Sea security.
§ 04 — Independence & Posture
What “independent” means here, in practice.
Independence is a structural condition, not a tone of voice. It is built into how the firm is funded, staffed and published.
I — NON-PARTISAN
No side, no mandate
The firm takes no position in regional disputes and accepts no mandate that would make its analysis the instrument of a government or faction.
II — UNOFFICIAL
No official voice
Research is private and unofficial. We do not brief media on clients' behalf, lobby, or conduct public-affairs campaigns.
III — SOURCE-GOVERNED
Evidence before conclusion
Analytical lines follow the evidence; where evidence is insufficient, the assessment says so and identifies what would resolve the question.
We do
- Produce private policy briefs, strategic assessments and working papers
- Publish full source trails to the commissioning client
- Decline mandates that compromise perceived neutrality
- Wall off conflicting clients and isolate sensitive engagements
We do not
- Issue press releases, op-eds or mass-media commentary
- Provide lobbying, public relations or election-related services
- Conduct unlawful surveillance or acquire illegal data
- Assist sanctions evasion or any act prohibited under UK law
§ 05 — People & the Network
A small core, a disciplined periphery.
The core team is composed of senior regional security analysts whose careers were formed in European think tanks and policy research institutes. They set research questions, conduct analysis and carry responsibility for every judgement issued under the firm's name.
Surrounding the core is a closed network, built by introduction and vetted before first engagement: former diplomatic and defence officials, intelligence-community practitioners now in private or academic life, scholars of Gulf and Middle Eastern politics and political economy, and in-region sources used for validation.
The network is deliberately not public. Members are engaged only on mandates that require them, work under written confidentiality terms, and are never publicly attributed. Clients who require it can be given anonymised credentials for the contributors on their engagement.
§ 06 — Research Products
Policy register, not media register.
Outputs are modelled on the policy brief and the academic working paper: precise questions, stated evidence, explicit assumptions and a clear line of judgement.
Strategic Assessments
Structural, longer-horizon studies of defence posture, alliance commitments, regional order and conflict scenarios, with options and warning indicators.
Working Papers
Academic-grade, fully referenced analysis suitable for private institutional libraries, internal archives and expert review.
Bespoke Mandates
Commissioned research, source verification, and confidential verbal briefings, including closed scenario sessions for leadership groups.
Rule
Work product is the client's under its confidentiality terms and is not republished by the firm. The firm maintains no public blog, newsletter or media feed; summaries, where offered, go to named recipients only.
§ 07 — Governance & Editorial Standards
Independence has to be administered.
Editorial independence
The commissioning client may not dictate findings. Analysts own the analytical line; a client dissatisfied with a conclusion may challenge the evidence, never purchase a different one.
Dual review
Every substantive deliverable is reviewed for analytical quality and for legal and conflict risk before release.
Conflict walls
A conflicts register governs who may work for whom. Adversarial clients in the same theatre are staffed and stored separately.
Sensitive-client approval
Political, governmental or otherwise sensitive engagements require approval from both a senior partner and the compliance lead.
Sourcing discipline
Claims carry source references; single-sourcing is flagged; uncertainty is stated, not smoothed over.
Information security
Access on a need-to-know basis, multi-factor authentication, encrypted channels, and isolation of sensitive project material.
§ 08 — Compliance & Legal Framework
Operating under United Kingdom law.
The firm conducts all its activity under UK law. Client intake includes sanctions screening, checks for politically exposed persons, adverse-media review and confirmation of identity and, where relevant, beneficial ownership.
We do not acquire information unlawfully, conduct unlawful surveillance, or assist in the evasion of sanctions. Information handling observes UK data-protection law, and research using open sources remains subject to those obligations.
- 01UK GDPR / Data Protection Act 2018 — lawful handling of personal information in research and correspondence.
- 02Bribery Act 2010 — risk assessment, due diligence and proportionate procedures across engagements.
- 03Sanctions & AML requirements — screening of clients, counterparties and beneficiaries before work begins.
- 04National Security Act 2023 — assessment of registration obligations arising from foreign-state arrangements.
Privacy
This website is an information site. It sets no cookies, uses no advertising or analytics services, and loads no third-party trackers. If you contact us by email or through the enquiry form, we process only the information you provide — name, organisation, contact details and the substance of your enquiry — to respond and, where a mandate follows, to administer it. We do not sell or share that information with third parties for marketing. Information is retained only as long as required for the engagement and for legal and regulatory record-keeping. Enquiries about your personal data, or requests for correction or deletion, may be sent to info@ephemerisadvisory.com. Standard server connection logs, where kept by the hosting provider, are used solely for security and availability.
Terms of use
The content of this website is general information about Ephemeris Advisory LLP and is not research, advice, an offer, or a contractual commitment. Nothing here constitutes legal, investment or tax advice. The firm's name and mark may not be used without written permission. External links are provided for convenience only; the firm is not responsible for third-party sites. Any engagement is governed by a written agreement between the firm and the client; in the absence of such an agreement, no duties are assumed. These terms are governed by the law of England and Wales.
A first conversation commits you to nothing.
Write in general terms; we will respond within one business day and, where appropriate, arrange a confidential discussion with a partner.
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